Trade Pathways launches Nigeria coverage as US tariffs weigh on small business exporters
New US import tax falls hardest on processed goods, the core of Nigeria’s small-business export economy.
For Nigeria’s small businesses, selling to the United States has become a moving target. Tariff costs for buyers have changed four times in the last 18 months, and the latest change brings new challenges for entrepreneurs and business owners.
The recent volatility began in April 2025, when the US placed a 14 per cent tax on most Nigerian goods. Four months later, the tariff rate rose to 15 per cent. Then, in February 2026, the US Supreme Court ruled these taxes unlawful, and a temporary 10 per cent tax was put in their place. For many exporters, it became difficult to know which rate applied, or for how long.
That temporary tax expired in July 2026 and was replaced by the one in place today: a 12.5 per cent tax on goods from countries that, according to the US government, have not banned imports made with forced labour. Nigeria is one of the few African countries on that list.
A key concern with the latest tariff is that it falls hardest on small businesses. Nigeria’s largest exports to the US, such as crude oil, gas and fertiliser, are exempt, and those are mostly handled by large enterprises. Beyond these exports, the dividing line tends to fall between raw and finished goods. Most raw commodities, like cocoa beans and raw cashews, are exempt, while finished goods such as roasted cashews, chocolate, shea butter, leather goods, cosmetics, packaged foods and crafts are taxed. These finished goods tend to be items that Nigeria’s small and medium-sized businesses most commonly export.
“The greater challenge lies not in the immediate loss of export opportunities, but in navigating an increasingly fragmented and protectionist global trading environment,” Dr Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), said in a policy brief issued after the tax was announced.
This growing challenge for small and medium-sized businesses is why Trade Pathways, a US-based, student-run organisation, was founded. Its goal is to create opportunities for small businesses in Africa by giving them free access to the same clear, up-to-date picture of US trade policy that multinationals and large enterprises get from legal teams and policy experts.
The platform tracks every US trade policy change and explains the structure in simple terms, so business owners can keep up with the constant shifts and understand buyer behaviour. Having initially served businesses in Kenya and Ghana, Trade Pathways is now launching full coverage for Nigeria, driven by recent trade policy changes and the potential adverse impacts on Nigerian business owners.
“Small business owners should be spending their time making and selling great products, not on interpreting US government trade notices,” noted Keshav Suman, the platform’s founder. “The information is public, but it changes constantly and is written for lawyers and policy experts, not for the business owners it affects most.”
The timing reflects growing activity among smaller Nigerian exporters. Non-oil exports reached a record $6.1 billion in 2025, and the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) registered 1,129 new exporters during the year. NEPC’s Executive Director, Nonye Ayeni, has said the council is focused on “reducing dependence on large exporters by supporting small and medium-scale enterprises.”
What Nigerian exporting businesses should know now
Which party pays the tariff. The US import tax is paid by the American buyer when the goods arrive, not by the Nigerian supplier. Suppliers are still impacted indirectly, however, as buyers ask for lower prices, order smaller quantities, or move part of their orders to suppliers in countries that pay less. The exception is when a seller agrees to deliver goods with all import duties already paid, an arrangement that is common when shipping parcels directly to US customers. In that case, the seller would be responsible for the tax.
Product classification. Exemptions from the new tax are set based on product and further classified by process, so two closely related goods can be treated very differently. Raw cashews, for example, are exempt, while roasted cashews are not. Before agreeing on a price, exporters should confirm exactly how their product is classified, so a buyer is not surprised by a higher cost after the order is placed.
Refunds of the 2025 tariffs. The emergency tariffs the US charged on imports from around the world in 2025, including the 14 and 15 per cent rates on Nigerian goods, were ruled unlawful by the US Supreme Court in February 2026. US Customs has been refunding importers since April 2026, and on October 8, a US court ruled that importers who have not filed their own lawsuits are covered under a single group claim. Although refunds benefit US buyers, Nigerian export businesses that lowered prices to help buyers absorb the tariff can reasonably negotiate in future pricing discussions.
AGOA and duty-free entry. The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a US programme that removes the standard import tax on qualifying goods from sub-Saharan Africa, was extended in September 2026 and now runs until December 2028. It covers thousands of products, including several forms of clothing, footwear, leather goods, processed foods and wooden crafts. Nigeria has also been certified since 2005 to export handloomed and ethnic printed fabrics such as aso oke, Akwete cloth and Ankara prints under AGOA, a benefit that many business owners are not aware of. AGOA does not, however, cancel the new 12.5 per cent tax rate in place for Nigeria.
US travel restrictions. Since January 2026, the US government has suspended new business and tourist visas for Nigerian nationals, which makes US trade shows difficult to attend. Video meetings, product samples sent ahead of a call, and US-based sales representatives or partners in the Nigerian diaspora can all help maintain buyer relationships through the absence of physical visits to the US.
Alternative markets and customers. Selling to more than one market reduces the risk of depending on a single country’s trade rules. Europe is already Nigeria’s largest buyer of non-oil goods, and many Nigerian products receive reduced import taxes there. Since May 2026, China has charged no import tax on Nigerian goods, an arrangement that runs until April 2028, though food and agricultural exporters must still register with Chinese customs and meet its product standards. Closer to home, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is gradually lowering import taxes between African countries, opening regional markets that are often easier to reach than the US.
What comes next
Several US developments could change the picture in the coming months. American importers and 25 US states are challenging the current 12.5 per cent tariff in a US trade court, which heard the case on September 30. A potential ruling could reduce or remove the tax entirely, though an appeal is expected on either side. The US government is also expected to announce its annual decisions on which countries remain eligible for AGOA near the end of the year. Trade Pathways noted it is currently tracking each of these policy movements and will update guidance as announcements come.
Trade Pathways’ resources for small business owners
Trade Pathways provides tools and services that are free for business owners in Kenya, Ghana, and now Nigeria. One such tool is a cost estimator, which calculates what a US buyer would pay at the border for a given product and shipment by country. On a $10,000 shipment, for example, Nigerian cocoa butter costs the buyer about $47 in customs fees, because it is exempt from the current tariff. The same shipment of wooden carvings costs about $1,297, almost all of it the 12.5 per cent tax. This allows sellers to anticipate how a buyer might respond to the tax, and to go into pricing conversations better prepared.
The platform also offers guidance on labour management, an area where US buyers are paying closer attention than ever. Because US law bans imports made with forced labour, American buyers increasingly ask their suppliers for proof of fair employment, such as written contracts, payroll records and confirmation that workers keep their own identity documents. Trade Pathways provides a checklist of these records so businesses can respond to buyer requests quickly.
Suman, a US-based high school student, started Trade Pathways in 2025. For years, he had bought home decor from sellers in Africa through platforms such as Etsy and TikTok Shop. When US tariffs took effect, he noticed several of those sellers begin to raise prices, pause shipments to the US, or announce closures of their operations. Realising that small businesses had limited ability to absorb or ride out sudden policy changes, he built Trade Pathways to give them clearer information to make informed decisions.
US trade policy is likely to remain unpredictable, and the businesses best placed to adapt will be those that understand the rules early. With its launch in Nigeria, Trade Pathways aims to make sure that knowledge base is available to every small business owner.
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