Osun election: Factors that’ll decide Adeleke, Oyebamiji, Salaam, others’ fate tomorrow
***Tinubu assures indigenes of adequate security
***15 candidates battle for 1.9m votes
By Clifford Ndujihe, Dapo Akinrefon, Henry Umoru & Shina Abubakar
OSOGBO — AFTER rounding off their campaigns, yesterday, 15 standard bearers are primed for tomorrow’s governorship election in Osun State.
Amid a cloud of tension unfurled by violence and killings that heralded the campaigns, President Bola Tinubu, yesterday, assured people of the state adequate security during and after polls and urged them to troop out en masse to exercise their franchise.
No fewer than 1.9m of 2,339,233 registered voters who collected PVCs across 30 local government areas, 323 wards, and 3,763 polling units are expected to decide the fate of candidates led by Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord seeking re-election, Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressives Congress, APC; and Najeem Salaam of the African Democratic Congress, ADC.
Factors such as influence of critical stakeholders and leaders, popularity, performance, incumbency, federal might and track record among others are expected to shape the outcome of the balloting.
Meanwhile, fresh violence erupted in Ijesaland, yesterday, as some suspected political hoodlums stormed Esa-Oke, and shot two members of the APC. The victims are Oladele Ayegbo and Taiwo Oluwatobi.
They however, said that the attack happened on Wednesday as security agencies embarked on show force in the state in readiness for the election. Already15,000 policemen, 31 Commissioners of Police, helicopters, and drones have been deployed.
Disturbed by the circle of violence, the Amnesty International Nigeria has vowed to make Senator Francis Fadahunsi an example in its campaign against impunity and inflammatory rhetoric by politicians, following remarks attributed to him in a viral video ahead of the poll.
Also, former Chief of Defence Staff, General Lucky Irabor (retd), has called for decisive action, including arrest against politicians and other prominent Nigerians who make inciting statements capable of triggering violence and disrupting the peace of the country.
Tinubu’s assurance
Ahead of the poll, President Tinubu has assured the people of adequate security during and after the exercise.
Tinubu gave the promise during the grand finale of the governorship campaign of the APC held in Osogbo, the Osun State capital yesterday to formally present its candidate, Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji, for the Saturday election.
Represented by President of the Senate, Godswill Akpabio, Tinubu said: “Let me assure all Osun indigenes that adequate security has been provided all over the state to ensure people come out to cast their votes for the candidate of their choice without any fear or intimidation. Feel very free to cast your votes for the candidate of your choice.”
The candidates, their strengths, weaknesses
With less than two days to the governorship election in Osun State and the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, confirming that 2,339, 233 residents registered to participate in the polls, candidates and political parties are rounding up campaigns and intensifying moves to warm themselves into the hearts of the people with a view to winning their support to emerge as the next governor of the state.
Of the 15 political parties and their candidates listed by INEC for the August 15 governorship polls, the most visible candidates have presented their manifestoes, gone beyond consultation and round up campaigns across the local government areas.
Candidates and their parties
Candidates in the race include Governor Ademola Adeleke (Accord party), Farinloye Olanrewaju (Action Alliance), Esan Olajide (African Action Congress, AAC); Najeem Salaam (ADC); Adeagbo Opawoye (African Democratic Party, ADP), Mustapha Adeniyi, Social Democratic Party, (SDP) and Bola Oyebamiji ( APC).
Others are Adesina Aseyemi-Doro (All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA); Adewale Adebayo (Allied People Movement, APM); Clement Adesuyi (Action Peoples Party, APP); Masilo Adeleke (Boot Party); Taofeek Adeleke (New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP); Saliu Oyelami (Peoples Redemption Party, PRP), Ogunsakin Olalekan (Young Progressives Party, YPP) and Adefemi Adesuyi (Zenith Labour Party, ZLP).
Out of the 15 candidates, three have emerged as front-runners of which Governor Adeleke hinged his re-election campaign on his five-point agenda reloaded. Mr Bola Oyebamiji of APC, tagged his manifesto as ‘Prosperity agenda’ and Najeem Salaam of the ADC launched a 10-point agenda.
Adeleke’s prospects
Apart from being the incumbent governor, he also enjoys acceptability among the majority of civil servants and the leadership of the labour unions. The NLC, TUC and JNC are all on his side and appeared in the Accord party campaigns soliciting support for the governor.
The governor is also banking on his achievements in the area of infrastructure across the three senatorial districts.
In addition, the Ede-born politician seems to be enjoying the backing of some traditional rulers in the state, led by the Ataoja of Osogbo, who on different occasions publicly declared support for the governor and Accord party despite resistance from his subjects.
Also, Adeleke is said to enjoy the support of his former party, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, through which he won the governorship poll about four years ago.and a section of the Labour Party, LP
The PDP’s failure to field a candidate for the 2026 polls in the state is more of an advantage for the governor’s re-election bid as the party’s structure, apart from a few strong men, still works for Accord.
Omisore’s loyalists’ defection
Another major advantage the governor has is the defection of Senator Iyiola Omisore’s loyalists to Accord Party due to the fallout of the APC primaries.
Although, Omisore did not leave the APC, many of his associates who served in the Gboyega Oyetola administration, including three commissioners and special advisers, left the party and joined Accord. He is a strong factor in the Ife axis.
It is also believed that Governor Adeleke has an advantage in Osun-West Senatorial District, where he won massively in 2022.
Interestingly, the APC candidate is also from the district, which is expected to deepen the battle for votes in Osun West.
Ede federal constituency, which the Governor hails from, consisting of Ede-North, Ede-South, Egbedore and Ejigbo local governments, has a total of 319,489 registered voters. This is a major advantage for the governor who still retains a hold on the area.
Besides, some bigwigs like Ibukun Fadipe, Sunday Bisi, Disu Babatunde among others may swing votes in Adeleke’s favour in Ijesaland.
In Osun Central, the governor enjoy the support of the Ataoja of Osogbo, Secretary to the State Government, Teslim Igbalaye, Mr Gani Ola-Oluwa and the House of Representatives member, Mr Morufu Adewale, who are likely to help the governor’s cause in Osogbo and Olorunda local government.
Challenges
The governor’s major problems stem from policy decisions early in his administration.
The opposition cites the sacking of teachers and health workers without replacements; sacking of media workers at the state-owned broadcast stations and the administration’s failure to recruit civil servants as a minus for his re-election bid.
The administration is facing allegation of nepotism, with outcry over recent employment into the teaching service and the University of Ilesa favouring Ede indigenes and shutting out other towns.
Also, the governor’s performance in major sectors like agriculture, health, commerce, industry and education form major issues for his opponents’ campaign strategies.
Another factor that may affect the fortunes of the governor is that a major PDP bloc loyal to former governor, Olagunsoye Oyinlola has publicly dumped the governor for the candidate of the APM, Mr Adewale Adebayo.
Oyebamiji’s prospects
The APC candidate, whose personality and philanthropy have endeared him to the people, is believed to enjoy the support of President Tinubu and APC governors.
Apart from being endorsed by the President, Oyebamiji’s election bid received a major boost with the defection of all the federal lawmakers from Osun-East senatorial district, who are also major political gladiators from the towns.
They include Senator Francis Fadahunsi, Mr Wole Oke (Ijesa-North federal constituency), Sanya Omirin (Ijesa-South federal constituency) and Mr Taofeek Ajilesoro (Ife federal constituency).
Besides, some of Omisore’s point men in Ife have also pledged loyalty to the party and its candidate.
While Adeleke got massive votes from Osun-West in 2022, the candidature of Oyebamiji may change the narrative, with the total registered votes from Ikire federal constituency amounting to 222,786 votes for Irewole, Ayedaade and Isokan local governments, likely reducing the influence of the governor in the district.
While Governor Adeleke seems to enjoy endorsement of royal fathers from Ife, Oyebamiji’s major endorsement has been coming from markets and traders.
In most of his engagements, the APC candidate took advantage of the allegation of nepotism against the incumbent to sell himself as a man for all and inaugurated 30 vote canvassers for each of the 3,763 polling units across the state.
Oyebamiji is likely to win in Osun-East due to the presence of Senator Francis Fadahunsi, a major political gladiator from Ijesaland, Hon Sanya Omirin and Wole Oke from Ijesa-South and North respectively.
Although, Senator Iyiola Omisore is still a member of the APC, some of his loyalists are still within the party. Also Engr. Kayode Adereti, the deputy governorship candidate of the party, is influential, having contested against incumbent member of the House of Representatives in 2022 – Taofeek Ajilesoro, who is now also in the APC.
In Osun-Central, whoever wins in Osogbo and Olorunda local government is likely to win the senatorial district. Oyebamiji has the likes of the party’s national secretary, Senator Ajibola Basiru who is from core Osogbo supported by Executive Director, Marine and Blue Economy, Olalekan Badmus and many elites in the Olorunda and Osogbo, supporting the APC.
Challenges
Oyebamiji’s major issue is the policy decision of the Oyetola administration under whom he served.
The modulated salary under Governor Rauf Aregbesola and the inability of Governor Gboyega Oyetola to pay part of it has been a major issue confronting his candidature.
His critics, especially from the Accord party, believe he is responsible for the modulated salary under Aregbesola’s administration and should not be trusted with the governorship seat.
Najeem Salaam’s prospects
Since unveiling his 10 point agenda, anchored on workers’ welfare and sustainable electricity for industrialisation of the state, Salaam, a former Speaker of the House of Assembly, has continuously engaged with the electorate on the need to abandon the traditional political parties.
Salaam’s advantage is Aregbesola’s grassroots appeal when he was governor in the state and the candidate’s humble nature that attracts him to a section of supporters across the state, especially from Osun-West Senatorial District where he hails from.
Many grassroots politicians, who left the APC along with Aregbesola, are with Salaam.
His Osun-West senatorial district roots can harm both Adeleke and Oyebamiji, and could be an advantage should he decide to go into an alliance work with either of the two.
He has, however, vowed to reach the finish line as he claims to be better qualified to govern the state than any of the candidates.
Ogbeni Aregbesola’s influence in Osogbo and Ilesa East local government may also work for Salaam’s ambition.
His challenges
Salaam’s major challenge is his affiliation with Rauf Aregbesola, who is National Secretary of the ADC. Civil servants are yet to forgive the former governor, who had bitter experiences with the modulated salary and pension issues during Aregbesola’s tenure.
Observers of political events in the state posit that the ADC does not have the necessary state-wide structure needed to prosecute an election, and the needed resources to run a successful governorship project. The three major candidates are from Osun-West Senatorial District, hence the district is going to be a battleground with Adeleke coming from Ede-North and Ede-South; Oyebamij from Irewole local government and Salaam is from Ejigbo local government area of the state.
LG crisis
Another important factor is control of the grassroots, local government administration is said to be the closest to the local people and the Accord and APC battled extensively for control which is yet to be resolved as the matter is still a subject of litigation. However, in the meantime the APC is still “controversially” in control of Local Government in the state.
Infrastructure development
A major factor is the infrastructure drive in the state in the last three and half years, the Governor Adeleke-led administration said it has completed over 300 km of road network across the State, including many first, such as the first dualised roads in Ilesa, Iwo, Ede and Ila-Orangun. The people applauded the governor for the feat achieved.
Elite conspiracy
One of the issues going into the polls is the elite conspiracy against the governor’s immediate family members. The governor may not really have problems with the Osun elite, but the way his immediate family, especially his elder sister, allegedly runs the affairs of government behind the scenes does not go well with them.
Many classified the administration as the Adeleke dynasty government rather than one run by party or state stakeholders. This formed part of the reason many political gladiators like Senator Francis Fadahunsi, Mr Wole Oke, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, Alhaji Shuaib Oyedokun among others parted ways with the governor.
Single-term syndrome
Since the creation of Osun State, those elected as governor, apart from Aregbesola, served only one term in office. It is to be seen if Adeleke will get a second term like Aregbesola.
Traditional rulers
This election has divided traditional rulers along party lines.
While others simply chose to support their subject, the Timi of Ede, Oba Adesola Lawal, openly campaigned for the Accord and the governor.
He publicly disclosed that Ede indigenes should vote for Accord to retain power in the town.
Also, the Akire and other traditional rulers in Irewole federal constituency have endorsed Oyebamiji, saying the constituency will prefer to have their son on the seat of power as means to guarantee their growth and development.
While the Ataoja of Osogbo, Oba Jimoh Oyetunji has thrown his weight behind Governor Adeleke over what Adeleke has done in the town, the Oluwo of Iwo, Oba Abdurosheed Akanbi is backing the APC. The Oluwo has openly told monarchs from Iwoland not to go the wrong way during the election on Saturday.
However, the Ooni of Ife, Oba Adeyeye Ogunwusi has retained his status of father to all, separating the palace from party politics.
Oyinlola backing Oyebamiji
Former Osun State governor, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola has pitched his tent with Oyebamiji and has promised to mobilize for the victory of the APC candidate. Oyinlola, a chieftain of the PDP, who announced his support for Oyebamiji, said Osun requires a different direction.
Several political leaders from the PDP and other political structures had also thrown their weight behind Oyebamiji, including former senator Olasunkanmi Akinlabi, former secretary to the Osun state government Fatai Akinbade and former PDP national vice-chairman Tajudeen Oladipo.
Omisore’s support
In the 2018 governorship election, Senator Iyiola Omisore, who was also contesting the governorship race, supported Oyetola during the supplementary elections to defeat Adeleke.
Omisore’s looming image helped Oyetola get 28,000 votes to beat Adeleke.
In the Ile-Ife axis, Omisore is seen as a power bloc, whose support base is capable of swinging the votes in favour of Oyebamiji.
Though during the electioneering campaigns, Omisore was conspicuously absent due to his being allegedly sidelined, however, a meeting with President Tinubu a fortnight ago made him change his mind to support Oyebamiji.
APC’s campaign DG killed 2days to election
Meanwhile, few hours to the election, fresh violence has erupted in Ijesaland as some suspected political hoodlums stormed Esa-Oke, and shot two APC members – Oladele Ayegbo and Taiwo Oluwatobi.
Oladele Ayegbo, a nephew of the APC campaign council Director-General, Mr Wole Oke, was reported to have died on the spot while the second victim, Oluwatobi is recuperating at the hospital.
The APC campaign council Media Committee Chairman, Remi Omowaye while addressing newsmen yesterday, said three other persons were attacked in Ilesa same day while one of its House of Representatives candidates, Francis Eniade was attacked inside police station at Okuku by hoodlums working for a governorship candidate.
“The APC was not accusing the police of complicity but urged the security agency to act swiftly and decisively in line with its constitutional responsibility to protect lives and property as the state prepares for Saturday’s governorship election,” he said.
In a statement issued on Thursday, Osun APC spokesperson Kola Olabisi revealed that Ayegbo was killed on Wednesday night near his residence in the Idofin area of Esa-Oke, located in the Obokun Local Government Area.
According to the party, suspected hoodlums operating from a vehicle carried out the attack.
“The Osun State chapter of the APC has condemned the killing of the party’s governorship campaign Director-General, Wole Oke’s nephew, Dele Ayegbo, in Esa-Oke, Obokun Local Government Area of the state on Wednesday night by the hit squad of the Accord party who have been terrorising the members and supporters of the opposition APC across the state,” the statement reads.
“Information has it that Ayegbo was gunned down at the road junction close to his house at the Idofin quarters area of the ancient town by the Accord Party hoodlums who were riding in a car.”
Olabisi stated that two party members were targeted in the shooting. While Ayegbo died instantly at the scene, the second victim sustained gunshot wounds and was rushed to an undisclosed local hospital for medical treatment.
Attack happened on Wednesday —Police
When contacted, Police Public Relations Officer, Osun Command, DSP Abiodun Ojelabi confirmed the incident, saying the attack was carried out on Wednesday night around 11pm.
Ojelabi said: “One Oladele Ayegbo has passed away while the other victim is receiving treatment at the hospital. More police unit have been deployed to the area to assist the Division to secure the town more appropriately,” he said.
15,000 policemen, 31 CPs deployed
To police the poll, the Force Public Relations Officer, Anietie Iniedu said the Police have deployed 15,000 policemen and 31 Commissioners of Police to oversee each local government during the exercise.
He added that police helicopter and drone unit have also been deployed to conduct aerial surveillance before, during and immediately after the election on Saturday.
His words: “We have 15,000 police officers on the ground, drawn from several combat and tactical units; the PMF, the TAPU, the Bomb Squad and the Special Protection Unit. We also have men from our tactical units on the ground. We have men on patrol, and we have men stationed at strategic locations.
“As I speak to you, we have deployed one unit of armed mobile police officers to every local government area. So, we have 30 units across the local government areas. A unit is actually about 60 police officers, including 50 armed police officers. So, we have a unit for each local government area.
“The men posted to the local government areas are being coordinated by a Commissioner of Police. There is a Commissioner of Police in each local government area. We also have a Deputy Commissioner of Police in each local government area, as well as a Mobile Police Commander and a PMF Commander in each local government area”, he said.
INEC office
CSP Iniedu further disclosed that two units of armed mobile policemen were attached to the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, headquarters in the state to ensure adequate security
“We also have two units of armed mobile police officers attached to the Independent National Electoral Commission headquarters in Osogbo. We have two units of armed police officers posted there.
Helicopters, drones deployed
“As of today, our helicopter and drone units have arrived in Osogbo, and they will be conducting area surveillance from now, during and immediately after the election”, he added.
Security agencies embark on show of force
The security agencies, including Police, DSS, Army, Air Force, NSCDC personnel among others have been going round for show of force to deter criminal-minded people from engaging in activities that may disrupt the peace and harmony of the state ahead of the poll.
He also disclosed that the state will be locked down from 12am on Saturday till after the election and only essential workers, and voters will be allowed to move around throughout election period.
“The Army is cordoning all border roads leading into Osun State. And so, by 12 a.m. on Saturday, we will be locking down the state. We will not be allowing any vehicular movement apart from those on essential duty, security duties and those going to cast their franchise”.
‘We’ll use Fadahunsi as example’ – Amnesty vows
Amnesty International Nigeria has vowed to make Senator Francis Fadahunsi an example in its campaign against impunity and inflammatory rhetoric by politicians, following remarks attributed to him in a viral video ahead of Saturday’s governorship election in Osun State.
In the video, Fadahunsi, who represents Osun East Senatorial District, was alleged to have directed his supporters to “kill” members of the Accord Party, which has incumbent Governor Adeleke as its governorship candidate.
The senator has, however, denied making any call for physical attacks, insisting that the viral video was edited to distort the meaning of his comment.
Speaking on Channels Television’s Sunrise Daily on Thursday, Country Director of Amnesty International Nigeria, Isa Sanusi, condemned the remarks attributed to Fadahunsi and said the organisation would use the case to challenge what he described as impunity among Nigerian politicians.
“We are going to use him as an example because this is the first time. We had so many other terrible politicians say terrible things ahead of elections, but this one is exceptional. A situation whereby somebody came out on record saying ‘kill them wherever you find them’, I believe that that person does not deserve any peace again because advocacy of hatred is a crime under international law as well as Nigerian laws.
“Therefore, we are going to use this man as an example to show that the impunity by Nigerian politicians cannot continue and we cannot tolerate it again; the people have to hold them to account if the government could not do that,” Sanusi said.
People who make inciting statements should be arrested – Ex-CDS Irabor
In like manner, former Chief of Defence Staff, General LEO Irabor(retd), has called for decisive action, including arrest, against politicians and other prominent Nigerians who make inciting statements capable of triggering violence and disrupting the peace of the country.
Speaking on Channels Television’s The Morning Brief on Thursday, Irabor condemned Senator Fadahunsi’s statement and commended the police for questioning him.
“For me as a person, any time we hear individuals who make inciting comments, I think that such people should be picked up immediately, and that is why I am glad that even though the statement made by Senator Fadahunsi is a political one, but I think that it also borders on incitement to violence. I think the police have done the right thing by inviting him, and he should be questioned even beyond that,” General Irabor said.
The former Defence chief also called for the arrest of Islamic clerics Sani Jingir and Ahmad Gumi over what he described as inciting statements they had made at different times.
“Added to that is of course the Sheik in Kano, Sheik Jingir, who also made some comments which of course I believe is also inciting that could also add to the bouquet of threats that we have, he also should be arrested and I also believe that the various comments that someone like Gumi has been making also demands that he be called not just to order but of course invited and arrested in other to let the populace know that there is nobody who is above the law and then when you say things that are not right you should be called in to answer,” the former service chief said.
Let people choose, peace must
prevail — Obi
Also, Presidential candidate of the National Democratic Congress, NDC, Mr. Peter Obi has called on all stakeholders in Saturday’s Osun State governorship election to ensure that voters are allowed to exercise their franchise freely and without intimidation.
Obi made the call in a statement posted on his X platform, yesterday, urging the INEC, security agencies, political parties, candidates and other stakeholders to maintain neutrality, professionalism and restraint before, during and after the election.
The former Anambra State governor said the people of Osun State must be allowed to determine their leaders through a transparent and credible electoral process.
He urged INEC to ensure that votes were properly counted, protected and announced in accordance with the wishes of the electorate.
“Osun belongs to its people. Therefore, I call on the Independent National Electoral Commission, security agencies, political parties, candidates, government institutions, civil society organisations, religious and traditional leaders, the media, and every stakeholder to act with the highest degree of neutrality, professionalism, and restraint,” Obi said.
He appealed to residents of Osun to reject violence and resist attempts by politicians to create divisions within communities for electoral advantage.
“To those within Osun State, I appeal for peace. Do not allow politicians to turn your neighbours, friends, and communities against each other. Do not destroy your state in the name of winning an election,” he said.
Obi also called on politicians, supporters, influencers and financiers outside the state to avoid actions that could fuel violence or intimidation during the poll.
He specifically urged security agencies to remain loyal to the Constitution and the Nigerian state rather than political parties or individuals.
Obi appealed to the international community, diplomatic missions and election observers to closely monitor the election, saying their presence could strengthen public confidence in Nigeria’s democratic process.
Sensitive materials arrive Osogbo
Meanwhile, INEC sensitive materials arrived Osogba, late yesterday, ahead of tomorrow’s poll.
Osun AG sues IGP, seeks order compelling police to probe Fadahunsi
The Osun State Government has approached a state high sitting in Osogbo, seeking an order compelling the police to investigate Senator Francis Fadahunsi over alleged inflammatory remarks and threats against members and supporters of the Accord Party ahead of Saturday’s governorship election.
The suit, filed by the state Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice, Oluwole Jimi-Bada, SAN, seeks an Order of Mandamus against the Inspector-General of Police and Commissioner of Police, Osun State Command.
Fadahunsi, who represents Osun East senatorial district, was joined in the suit as the person affected or interested party.
The government said the action followed a video circulating on social media, allegedly showing Fadahunsi addressing a political gathering in front of the Owa Obokun’s Palace, Ilesha, on August 11, 2026.
According to court documents, the senator allegedly made remarks interpreted as calls for violence against Accord party members, including directing supporters to attack them wherever they were found.
The government alleged that Fadahunsi also threatened their families, directed supporters to chase Accord members from hotels and made derogatory comments about the party’s yellow caps.
It further alleged that the senator threatened that the election would not hold if Accord members resisted the alleged actions of APC supporters.
The state is asking the court to compel the police to investigate the video and determine whether the alleged statements constitute criminal offences.
It also wants the police to preserve, authenticate and conduct forensic examination of the complete video to establish whether it had been altered or edited.
Other reliefs sought include an order directing the police to take preventive measures to protect Accord candidates, members and voters from intimidation and harassment before, during and after the election.
In a supporting affidavit, Nurudeen Kareem, Special Adviser to Governor Ademola Adeleke on Legal Matters, said Accord members had expressed “reasonable and legitimate concerns regarding their safety and security before, during, and after the forthcoming election.”
The government argued that the police had a statutory responsibility under the Police Act 2020 and the 1999 Constitution to prevent crime and maintain public order.
It said: “The applicant believes that waiting until actual violence, deaths, or injuries occur before investigating an alleged public instruction to kill political opponents would amount to a dereliction of duty.”
The Attorney-General stressed that the suit was not asking the court to determine Fadahunsi’s guilt, but to compel the police to perform their statutory duties and take appropriate preventive action.
With the election scheduled for Saturday, the government said “time is of the absolute essence,” warning that failure to act on the alleged threat could have serious consequences for public safety and the electoral process.
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