UNCTAD: AI-driven Automation May Affect 40% of Global Jobs as Market Hits $4.8tn by 2033

Ndubuisi Francis in Abuja

The UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD )has projected that the global Artificial Intelligence (AI) market is se to hit $4.8 trillion by 2033, expressing apprehension that up to 40 per cent of jobs worldwide could be affected by AI-driven automation, which threatens to erode the low-cost labour advantage many developing economies rely on for growth and poverty reduction.
UNCTAD is a permanent intergovernmental body set up the United Nations General Assembly in 1964, and supports developing countries to access the benefits of a globalised economy more fairly and effectively.
In a new report titled, “Ensuring AI Benefits Everyone Is Key to Development in the Global South,” which identified the capabilities and international arrangements needed to prevent AI from widening existing development gaps, UNCTAD noted that the global AI market is projected to hit $4.8 trillion by 2033.
The projection is roughly the size of Germany’s economy, indicating a 25-fold increase in just 10 years.
In July 2026, Nigeria emerged as the leading African country in the second edition of the Global Index on Responsible AI (GIRAI), ranking 38th globally and number one in Africa with an overall index score of 45.93.
UNCTAD noted that while the global AI market is projected to hit $4.8 trillion by 2033, about 65 per cent of people in least developed countries currently remain offline, putting the technology out of reach from the start.
It stated that up to 40 per cent of jobs worldwide could be affected by AI-driven automation which threatens to erode the low-cost labour advantage many developing economies rely on for growth and poverty reduction.
According to the organisation, 118 countries – mostly in the global south, are absent from major AI governance platforms, meaning that norms on safety, transparency and accountability are being written without them.
“These are not just technical gaps. They’re human development gaps affecting livelihoods, public services and countries’ capacities to meet their citizens’ needs,” it said.
However, it stressed that the technology’s rapid expansion is already affecting everyday life, adding that AI-powered mobile apps help rural health workers interpret symptoms where doctors are scarce, while adaptive learning platforms personalise lessons for students in under-resourced schools.
“In climate-vulnerable regions, AI models forecast floods, droughts and crop failures days or weeks in advance, giving communities time to prepare.
“But these gains aren’t automatic. They depend on choices about who builds the technology, whose data train it, and who gets a say in how it is governed,” UNCTAD added.
It also pointed out that the stakes are high for human development as the benefits of AI are far from evenly distributed, stressing that a small group of economies and around 100 firms control the bulk of AI research, patents, and computing power.
Similarly, fewer than one third of developing countries have a national AI strategy, explaining that among least developed countries, the figure is just 12 per cent.
UNCTAD underscored the point that AI can deliver the greatest human development impact where needs are most acute: agriculture, primary healthcare, disaster management and public administration.
But it stated that success depends on three interdependent factors: infrastructure such as electricity, broadband and computing; locally relevant data; and workforce skills.
For most developing countries, the organisation noted that the realistic entry point is adapting existing or open-source models to local conditions rather than building proprietary systems.
Aligning these efforts with national development plans — and treating data governance as central to readiness — separates countries that capture AI’s gains from those where the technology remains confined to urban centres, it said.
UNCTAD) advocated for global cooperation to steer AI towards shared goals and values.
It prescribed a public disclosure mechanism for AI, similar to the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) framework, adding that this can improve accountability and turn global commitments into impactful outcomes.
It added that a global shared facility can provide equitable access to AI infrastructure, lowering entry barriers for countries that cannot build such infrastructure alone.
It equally recommended open data and open-source models to broaden access to knowledge and resources, supporting inclusive AI innovation, adding that coordinating fragmented open-source AI resources can make them more accessible and promote global collaboration.
UNCTAD observed that sharing AI knowledge and resources – especially through South–South cooperation – can strengthen the capacity of developing countries to seize AI benefits and address common challenges.