Tinubu edges Obi by 1,067 responses in Oxford-Metro poll

President Bola Tinubu finished ahead of Peter Obi by 1,067 responses in the Oxford–Metro Analytics’ National Trust Poll.

The ​‌‍‍‍‍⁠⁠‌‍⁠‌‌⁠‍​​‌​poll, which closed on Sept. 7, recorded a total of 69,110 approved and unflagged responses in its final analytical dataset.

Tinubu received 24,469 responses, representing 35.41 per cent of the total responses, while Obi polled 23,402, representing 33.86 per cent of the total responses.

Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar came third with 18,430 responses, representing 26.67 per cent of the total participation.

The result gave Tinubu an advantage of 1,067 responses over Obi, translating to approximately 1.54 percentage points.

The poll’s regional distribution, however, suggested a significantly different electoral map from the outcome of the 2023 presidential election.

Tinubu, who won 12 states in the 2023 presidential election, was reported to have led in 20 states and the Federal Capital Territory in the online poll.

Meanwhile, Obi and Atiku recorded the highest number of responses each in eight states.

The strongest changes were recorded in parts of Northern Nigeria, where the poll indicated growing support for Tinubu.

Tinubu led in Kaduna, Katsina and Gombe, which were states won by Atiku during the 2023 presidential election.

He also led in Kano, where New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) candidate, Rabiu Kwankwaso won the presidential vote in 2023.

At the regional level, Tinubu led in the South-West, North-West and North-Central geopolitical zones.

Obi recorded his strongest performances in the South-East and South-South, while Atiku led the North-East.

In the South-West, Tinubu received 10,968 responses, representing 43.53 per cent of the region’s total participation.

He also led in the North-West with 4,129 responses, accounting for 43.10 per cent of responses from the zone.

In the North-Central, Tinubu secured 6,370 responses, representing 36.97 per cent of the regional total.

Obi’s strongest regional performance came from the South-East, where he received 5,796 responses, representing 63.97 per cent.

The Labour Party candidate also led the South-South with 2,389 responses, accounting for 41.48 per cent of participants in the region.

Atiku dominated the North-East, where he received 1,235 responses, representing 55.46 per cent of the region’s total.

In spite of Tinubu’s wider geographical spread, the national contest remained remarkably close between the leading candidates.

The difference of 1,067 responses between Tinubu and Obi underscored the narrow margin separating the two leading contenders.

Some individual state contests were considerably closer than the broader regional figures suggested.

In Kogi, for instance, Tinubu received 39 responses, Atiku 38 and Obi 33 out of only 110 responses recorded.

The one-response difference between Tinubu and Atiku in Kogi demonstrated the importance of considering the relatively small participation base in interpreting the figures.

In the FCT, Tinubu secured 5,599 responses against Obi’s 5,278, giving him a lead of 321 responses, while Atiku received 3,954.

In Rivers, Tinubu polled 975 responses, compared with Obi’s 892 and Atiku’s 568, leaving an 83-response margin between the two leading candidates.

Beyond the three leading candidates, Omoyele Sowore received 1,016 responses, followed by Seyi Makinde with 519 and former President Goodluck Jonathan with 284.

Anita Zugwai-Chukwu received 18 responses, Sandy Onor received six responses, while Prince Kennedy Ahanotu recorded two responses.

Another 638 participants selected the option, “I Do Not Trust Any Candidate Yet,” while 204 respondents were undecided and 122 selected “Other Candidate.”

The distribution showed that winning the overall tally did not necessarily translate into dominating every geopolitical zone or state.

Tinubu’s lead nationally and across three geopolitical zones contrasted with Obi’s dominance in the South-East and Atiku’s strength in the North-East.

However, participation was heavily concentrated geographically, with Lagos and the FCT alone accounting for 54.44 per cent of all responses.

The final dataset also contained 56 diaspora responses, which were excluded from the six domestic regional tallies.

(NAN)

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