The Man Between Market and the State

Kehinde Sowole writes on how Temi Popoola and NGX Group are turning economic reform into capital formation

Every era of economic reform produces two kinds of figures. There are the reformers themselves, the presidents, ministers and governors who take the political risk of change. And there are the interlocutors: the institutional leaders who translate reform into confidence, policy into capital, and government ambition into market reality. Nigeria’s current reform era has no shortage of the first kind. What has become increasingly evident is the emergence of the second, and few embody that role more convincingly today like Temi Popoola, Group Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Nigerian Exchange Group.

Last week’s engagement between the NGX Group Board and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu at the State House was, on its surface, a courtesy visit. Read properly, it was something rarer: a working session between a government pursuing economic transformation and a capital market leadership that has positioned the market as an increasingly indispensable instrument for delivering that transformation. The numbers presented to the president told one story; market capitalisation rising from under N30 trillion in 2023 to about N160 trillion today, while the All-Share Index climbed from roughly 52,000 to over 244,000 points. The rally reflects the positive response of investors to recent macroeconomic reforms, while also building on decades of institutional development by market operators, listed companies, regulators and investors. But the more consequential story came afterwards was the president’s affirmation that NNPC Limited will be reformed and listed on the capital market, alongside his endorsement of the market’s role in financing Nigeria’s ambition of becoming a one-trillion-dollar economy.

That a sitting Nigerian president now speaks of the stock exchange as an instrument of national economic strategy, in the same breath as fiscal and monetary policy did not happen by accident. It reflects years of deliberate work by institutions across Nigeria’s capital market ecosystem to reposition the market from a spectator of economic policy to an active participant in national development. Throughout that evolution, Popoola has emerged as one of its most influential advocates and architects, helping to articulate a vision of the capital market not merely as a trading venue, but as infrastructure for national growth.

Consider the record. When the banking sector recapitalisation programme was announced, sceptics predicted overwhelming dependence on foreign capital. Instead, roughly three-quarters of the funds were mobilised domestically, supported by NGX Invest, a market infrastructure that NGX Group and the wider ecosystem had modernised for exactly such moments. When Nigeria migrated to T+1 settlement this June, placing it among the more efficient emerging markets in post-trade settlement, it reflected years of coordinated technical work involving exchanges, regulators, clearing institutions and market participants. When international index providers questioned aspects of the market’s structure, NGX Group’s leadership responded with evidence rather than rhetoric. And when Dangote Petroleum Refinery signalled its intention to list, it reinforced a proposition Popoola has consistently advanced: Nigeria’s largest enterprises should increasingly seek long-term capital from Nigerian markets, allowing more Nigerians to participate in the country’s economic growth.

What distinguishes Popoola’s leadership is its refusal of the adversarial posture that has often characterised relations between African markets and African governments. Exchange leaders have traditionally oscillated between supplication and criticism, either asking governments for concessions or lamenting policy shortcomings. Popoola has helped shape a different approach: partnership not with any particular administration, but with credible economic reform itself. The four priorities presented at the State House; the privatisation and listing of viable government assets, dual listings by leading Nigerian companies, clarity around capital gains tax treatment, and greater use of capital markets to finance infrastructure, were less a list of requests than a proposed division of labour. Government provides policy clarity, assets and reform momentum; the capital market provides capital formation, price discovery, transparency and broad-based ownership.

The NNPC commitment is the first major test of that division of labour, and it is difficult to overstate what it could represent. A listed NNPC would mean audited accounts where opacity has often prevailed, market discipline where political discretion has historically dominated, and perhaps most significantly, an opportunity for millions of Nigerians, directly and through their pension funds to own a stake in one of the country’s most strategic commercial enterprises. It is privatisation not as transfer to a connected few, but as broader public participation. If executed successfully, it could become one of the defining institutional reforms of this era. NGX would provide the platform, while years of investment in settlement systems, market infrastructure, retail participation and institutional capacity would help explain why the market is increasingly prepared for transactions of such scale.

None of this eliminates the difficult questions. Nigeria’s cost-of-living pressures remain real, and rising equity indices do not immediately reduce household expenses, a reality acknowledged by both Popoola and Central Bank Governor Yemi Cardoso. The trillion-dollar economy remains an aspiration requiring sustained growth well beyond recent performance. And the distance between a presidential commitment and a completed listing is one on which many reform programmes have faltered. Yet this is precisely why institutional leadership matters. Commitments become transactions only when there are credible institutions capable of executing them and leaders trusted by policymakers, domestic investors and international capital alike. That institutional credibility built patiently over time may prove to be one of the most valuable assets the Nigerian capital market possesses.

The history of successful reforming economies demonstrates that governments alone do not build vibrant capital markets, nor do capital markets reform governments in isolation. Progress emerges through productive collaboration between credible public policy and strong market institutions. That collaboration must outlast any administration because markets ultimately create wealth through rules, not rulers. The strongest testament to NGX Group’s growing institutional maturity is that its case for deeper capital markets would remain the same regardless of who occupies political office. In Nigeria’s reform moment, Popoola has become one of the principal figures helping to occupy that critical space between policy and capital. The president has now said publicly what many market participants have long believed: if the stock market is doing well, Nigeria’s economy is moving in the right direction. The task now is to ensure that confidence continues to translate into investment, reform into opportunity, and market performance into lasting national prosperity.

·         Sowole, a financial expert, is based in Lagos