THE CLASH OF INTEREST

FCT minister’s Rainbow Coalition is a hybrid political strategy that advances the president’s interests but can undermine some of the All Progressives Congress governors’ fortunes, writes BOLAJI ADEBIYI

The fireworks between the Federal Capital Territory Minister, Nyesom Wike, and the All Progressives Congress governors on Monday exploded a ticking time bomb. There has been no love lost between the APC leadership, its governors and the FCT minister. They have always expressed reservations about the cosy relationship between President Bola Tinubu and Wike, which they feel Wike, a member of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party, has taken undue advantage of.

An early sign of trouble emerged last year when Siminalayi Fubara, the Rivers State governor and Wike’s protege, crossed the floor from the PDP to the APC and assumed leadership of the latter under the party’s policy that allocates state leadership to the governor. Wike, who controlled both the APC and PDP structures in the state, challenged Fubara’s leadership, arguing that Rivers State should be an exception to the rule.

If the party’s governors, under the auspices of the Progressives Governors’ Forum, anticipated the danger of the precedent Wike sought to set, they probably lacked the courage to challenge him openly. It was Basiru Ajibola, the APC national secretary, who mounted a feeble challenge. He told the FCT minister, in no uncertain terms, that he was a meddlesome interloper who could not dictate to a party hierarchy of which he was not a member.

However, Wike had his way: the party’s leadership not only conceded to him but also denied Fubara the right of first refusal to hoist the party’s flag in the impending 2027 governorship election. Not a few party leaders and political analysts believe the FCT was muscled through at the President’s behest, a move that reflected the confidence the President enjoyed in him despite his not being an APC member. 

Perhaps this is the clear and present danger the APC governors seek to avert. Wike’s publicly expressed support for President Tinubu’s second-term push has repeatedly helped him get away with murder. Otherwise, why would they object to collaborating with a coalition of forces to secure victory for their party’s candidate in a presidential election that promises to be a titanic fight against the backdrop of the widespread adverse effects of the prevailing economic reforms?

Meanwhile, Wike’s Rainbow Coalition makes strategic political sense, as it can counterbalance the opposition parties’ ongoing efforts to unite behind a single candidate to confront President Tinubu in 2027. Already, he has helped President Tinubu contain the PDP, which, without a doubt, remains the only opposition party with the nationwide structure to mount an effective challenge. With that behemoth under wraps, Wike proposes allying with other parties in key states to mobilise votes for President Tinubu. What is the problem with that?

The governors’ fear seems to be that Wike might seek concessions from President Tinubu in exchange for ceding some states to him. This fear is both real and logical, given what happened in his home state, Rivers, where the APC governorship candidacy was ceded to his ally, Emmanuel Chinda. Despite the crisis in the PDP, the minister’s faction has candidates vying for governorship and legislative positions in 26 of the 28 states where elections will be held next year.

This shows that, under Wike’s leadership, the PDP still has stronger organisational capacity than the other opposition parties, which are fielding candidates in only a dozen states. The African Democratic Congress, for instance, has gubernatorial candidates in only 18 states, while the National Democratic Congress is fielding candidates in 12 states. If the morning shows the day, the party with the leadership capacity to make a greater electoral impact should be clear. This suggests Wike can mobilise votes in at least 26 states. No one should take such a person for granted when facing strong contenders. Against this backdrop, Wike’s capacity to extract concessions appears more tangible than many imagined, particularly in APC states weakened by internal strife.

So, rather than seeking to cut Wike down to size or alienate him, it would be more strategic for the APC governors to accommodate him. Though this is a difficult proposition, they have little room to manoeuvre, as President Tinubu is unlikely to be intimidated into abandoning an ally with a proven capacity for electoral delivery. This is especially true because the presidential election precedes the governorship poll. Are the governors likely to ask the president to choose between them and the FCT minister? It is unlikely.   

While the Presidency and the APC have yet to respond officially to the governors’ concerns, initial comments from presidential campaign spokespersons suggest a cautious approach. Speaking on ARISE TV on Tuesday night, Ayobami Oyalowo saw no divergence between the governors and the FCT minister. “Both of them said they are backing the president. So, the devil is in the details,” he added, explaining that President Tinubu and the party leadership will intervene shortly to separate the fight. Ima Niboro, a former presidential spokesperson, echoed the sentiment, noting that both parties are working for the president.

It might not be that simple, though. President Tinubu will have to balance the combatants’ interests. On the one hand are the 31 APC governors, with enormous influence in their states. While some are seeking re-election, others want to install their proteges. Both believe a likely presidential deal with the FCT minister could jeopardise their interests. On the other hand, Wike is standing on the PDP platform with nationwide capacity to augment the president’s electoral fortune in an election that promises to be tight. Such augmentation is not likely to come at no cost.

Untangling this intricate nut may test President Tinubu’s famed political sagacity.

Adebiyi, a Fellow of the Nigerian Guild of Editors, writes from Abuja