Omotola: Election May Be Won by Vote Concentration, Not Number of States
Funmi Ogundare
The Publisher of an online newspaper, Politico.ng, Lai Omotola, weekend said a presidential candidate may win more states in the forthcoming election and still lose the overall contest.
He said vote concentration and turnout in areas of electoral strength would be critical to the outcome.
Omotola, who spoke at its October edition of the 2027 presidential election projection press conference in Lagos, explained that the ability of political parties and candidates to mobilise voters in their strongholds would be more significant than merely winning a large number of states.
He cited Lagos State as an example, noting that although the state has a large number of registered voters, achieving 50 per cent turnout would be difficult, unlike some areas where voters traditionally turn out in large numbers and vote as communities.
According to him, “It is not only for you to win election with maybe 10 votes, 20 votes, or 30,000 votes and say you are winning this election. This election has to be won in landslide, where your strength is.”
He added that his organisation; Political Intelligence Group ( PIG), had figures from its research but was not ready to make them public, urging politicians to study their own data and electoral calculations carefully.
Omotola also called for the use of opinion polls to better understand voters’ preferences, but cautioned that polls should not be treated as foolproof predictors of election outcomes.
He said polling should examine different demographic groups, including young people, older voters, urban and rural populations, and their respective concerns.
According to him, “Young Nigerians are particularly concerned about access to education and financial independence, while older people are more concerned about pensions and gratuities, and working-class adults are interested in employment opportunities and economic activity.”
He, however, observed that Nigerian politics had yet to become predominantly ideological, saying ethnicity, religion, economic conditions and insecurity continued to influence electoral behaviour.
On the influence of economic hardship on voters, Omotola said hunger and poverty remained important factors, but argued that voters’ decisions could also be shaped by community leaders and other influential figures.
He further alleged that vote buying could influence electoral outcomes, claiming that some voters might accept between N20,000 and N50,000 because of their economic circumstances.
Omotola also said political parties should pay greater attention to the difference between campaign promises and the realities of governance, particularly when making promises on issues such as fuel subsidy, minimum wage, employment and social welfare.
Reacting to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s position on restoring fuel subsidy, he said any proposal to reintroduce subsidy should be accompanied by a clear explanation of how it would be funded.
He described campaign promises as forecasts that could only be tested against the realities of government finances after a candidate assumed office.
Omotola, who is also the Convener of the Renewal Group, said politicians should therefore explain the sources of funding for their proposed programmes rather than merely announcing figures and policies.
He also questioned the feasibility of some campaign promises on wages, arguing that proposed increases in workers’ salaries would have wider implications for government expenditure and the private sector.
According to him, Nigeria’s fiscal position requires political leaders to demonstrate adequate knowledge of public finance and how government revenue, recurrent expenditure, debt servicing and infrastructure spending interact.
“Being stubborn and having good intention can never replace knowledge,” he said, arguing that Nigeria needed leaders with the knowledge required to develop sustainable solutions to its economic challenges.
On the role of ethnicity and religion in Nigerian elections, Omotola said their influence remained evident in the way politicians engage religious and community leaders during campaigns.
He noted that politicians continued to visit churches and mosques because they recognised the importance of such institutions and their leaders in mobilising voters.
He also said recent legal disputes involving politicians who changed political parties or lost party tickets were unlikely, in his assessment, to significantly alter the broader electoral calculations, as affected politicians would continue to pursue their cases through the courts.
Emphasising on the electoral map which he presented, the Convener projected that the ruling party would win 19 states if the 2027 presidential election were held in October.
The projection also showed the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) increasing its projected number of states from 8 in September to 10 in October, while the African Democratic Congress (ADC) dropped from 9 to 8 states.
Omotola said the monthly projection was designed to help political parties identify their areas of strength and weakness rather than serve as a prediction of the final outcome of the 2027 election.
According to him, the October map was based on political developments and activities recorded across the country in September and reflected what the electoral landscape could look like if the election were conducted in October.
Omotola, however, stressed that the projection was premised on the assumption that the election would be conducted freely and fairly, noting that violence or large-scale electoral malpractice could significantly alter the projections based on current observations.