Nigeria’s Oil Reserves Sliding To 36bn Barrels over Untapped Frontiers, Idle Assets, NAPE Warns
*Says FG must waive upfront signature bonus, incentivise data acquisition, fast-track marginal fields to replace resevess
Peter Uzoho
The President of the Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE), Mrs. Olajumoke Ajayi, has warned that Nigeria’s proven oil reserves which have already declined from 38 billion barrels a couple of years ago to now 37 billion barrels may slide further to 36 billion barrels if frontier basins remain unexplored and undeveloped assets continue to lie idle.
Ajayi, who is also the Managing Director of West African Exploration & Production Limited, (WAEP), gave the warning during a panel at the ongoing 3rd Nigeria Oil Refining Summit (NORS) 2026, themed “Refining for Value: Linking Upstream Supply to Downstream Demand.”
Responding to a question on what Nigeria must do beyond current production to build the crude base required for its refining ambitions, she said the country is producing from only one basin ( Niger Delta) despite its huge potential.
“The Niger Delta basin is the only basin we are really producing from today. There are still about six basins yet to be thoroughly explored,” Ajayi said.
She said with 37 billion barrels of proven reserves according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) data, Nigeria has sufficient crude to feed the Dangote Refinery and modular refineries, but the reserves were on a steady decline because replacement has stalled.
“It used to be 38 billion barrels. It’s now 37 billion. Come few years from now it will be 36 billion barrels. If we don’t replace it, how can we prepare ourselves to have feedstock for the refineries we are building?” she asked.
Ajayi noted that Dangote plans to double its current capacity while more modular refineries were coming on stream, making reserve replacement urgent.
She said the quickest wins laid in assets already awarded but not developed.
She pointed out that many operators hold marginal fields and undeveloped discoveries that could be returned to production through re-entry and workover operations, but were held back by funding constraints.
Instead of seeking large standalone financing, she urged operators to leverage proximity infrastructure by collaborating with nearby producers to evacuate crude quickly and bring fields to first oil.
“There are many undeveloped fields that operators have today, many marginal fields, low hanging fruits that they can quickly go into, re-enter and bring the oil to surface,” she said. “Many operators, rather than take advantage of proximity of infrastructure around them, start looking for funds.”
She added that some underdeveloped fields were still held by big players and need to be fast-tracked through brownfield redevelopment.
Beyond assets, Ajayi flagged competence as critical, noting that successful independent oil and gas companies were managed by technically competent teams who can work assets efficiently.
“If we want to grow our refining capacity sustainably, we need to put more investment into upstream. It should grow along with what we are doing with our refineries,” she said.
On exploration policy, she called for a fundamental shift in frontier basin strategy.
She recalled that in the last bid round, 50 fields were put out, but most of those not taken were frontier assets with little or no data, making upfront signature bonuses a disincentive.
“We need to have another strategy for the frontier environment. If there is no data you can’t tell people to bid for that,” she said. “Niger Delta used to be a frontier but it is where we are producing today.”
Ajayi proposed that government should allow interested companies to spend minimal money to acquire data and de-risk frontier blocks first, and only then negotiate signature bonus if prospects are proven.
“Government needs to incentivise the frontier, give it to people who want to work it. When they work it, they acquire data and if they see anything, they can come back to the table and discuss signature bonus,” she said.
She warned that without deliberate planning to replace reserves, incentivise frontier work, unlock idle assets and deploy the right technical people, Nigeria’s God-given resource advantage will not translate into sustainable feedstock for its refining boom.