Why Atiku Abubakar will never be president (2), by Ochereome Nnanna
Most people say that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has vied for president of Nigeria six times over 30 years (1993 – 2023). For me, it’s seven times. In 2003 when he was President Olusegun Obasanjo’s deputy, his failed “Mandela Option”, aimed at limiting Obasanjo to one term, was meant to clear the way for him (Atiku) to run.
There was widespread perception that Atiku had control of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) machinery through the People’s Democratic Movement (PDM) network. If Atiku had had his way, he would have vied against Obasanjo for the PDP ticket in the presidential primaries. I can remember how, during the 2003 campaigns, Obasanjo grabbed Atiku’s hand and was walking all over the campaign platform as if to say: “by all means, you and I are in this together”. Immediately Obasanjo won his re-election, he felt Atiku had outlived his usefulness.
People can argue that Obasanjo’s vaulting political ambition (which drove him to his failed self-succession attempt) and his high-handedness towards state governors like Dr Chris Ngige of Anambra State, would still have ruptured his relationship with Atiku. After Obasanjo’s Constitution Amendment Bill 2006 failed at the Senate, he chased out Atiku and his loyalists from the PDP and moved to make himself the “life leader” of the party, meaning that he would still call the shots from his retirement.
Atiku was presented with a second chance when he returned to the PDP during the Umaru Yar’ Adua/Goodluck Jonathan dispensations. If he had exercised patience to allow Jonathan to complete his full presidential terms, the PDP would have fallen into his lap, and Atiku would have consummated his own presidential ambition long ago. But he saw Jonathan as an easy ride and mobilised the North in an attempt to grab power by force in 2011. This ended in his catastrophic defeat at the primaries. Again, he left and joined the fast-rising opposition All Progressives Congress (APC). There he lost the 11th December 2014 presidential primaries to Muhammadu Buhari, who had the full support of Bola Tinubu.
After that, Atiku disappeared to Dubai, where he stayed out of Nigerian affairs till 2017 when the 2019 political season started warming up. Buhari and Tinubu had kept Atiku and his loyalists at an arm’s length within the APC and the Buhari government. So, they returned en masse to the PDP, and Atiku promptly vied for the 1019 presidential election with Peter Obi as his running mate. That was Atiku’s finest hour as a presidential candidate. Indeed, I am one of those who believe that Atiku defeated Buhari in that election but for the partisan roles that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the armed forces and Supreme Court, played to hand the 2019 election to Buhari.
In 2023, it was again the South’s turn. The South West and South-South had produced presidents. It was clearly the South East’s turn. This zone had thrown its full weight behind the Atiku/Obi ticket in 2019 in anticipation of 2023. Atiku was expected to support Obi’s presidential ambition. He did not even show Obi the green light of adopting him again as his running mate. This was one of the reasons Obi left the PDP for the Labour Party. The controversial final result released by Prof Mahmood Yakubu’s INEC indicated that Tinubu of the APC won the election with 8,794,726 votes. Atiku got 6,984,520 while Obi scored 6,101,533 votes. Atiku and Obi’s combined votes topped 13 million. It also indicted that Atiku had fallen down from the over 11 million votes he had scored in 2019 against Buhari by over five million votes!
Atiku will be 80 years old by January 2027 when the presidential election holds. Barring Tinubu’s real age, Atiku will be the oldest person to run for president if he insists on going again next year. Nigerians are tired of him, but Atiku doesn’t care. All he can see is the millions of Northern votes waiting to give him the presidency. He is obviously seeing a mirage. In 2019, he had a balanced ticket, and Nigerians were eager to vote out the incompetent Islamist, Buhari. Knowing he could not win at the polls, Buhari used the machinery of state to re-elect himself. In 2019, it was still the North’s turn under the rotational arrangement. This same Atiku who was crying it was the North’s turn in 2011 is struggling to deprive the South of its right to complete its eight years.
In 2027, Nigerians are looking to elect a leader who will save them from Tinubu’s security incompetence and draconian economic policies, especially his crippling tax reform waiting to pounce. Atiku no longer features among people being looked up to for salvation. Many people now see him as a spoiler if he vies in 2026. It was the split votes of 2023 that gave Tinubu his slim victory. The only way Tinubu could be defeated is if the main opposition leaders unite behind a strong, refreshing ticket. This is the factor that will draw millions to the polls next January. Many Nigerians also say that if Atiku contests next year, the election of 2023 will repeat itself. Split votes will favour the ruling party. If that happens, Tinubu will be comfortably re-elected. There will be no credible challenge. Atiku must realise that there is no road to the presidency for him anymore. His uncontrolled opportunism and entitlement mentality have seen to that. His time to put aside himself is now. Will Atiku make this sacrifice?
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