Opinion: The “Siege” is a Myth—Democracy is Advancing While the Opposition is Stalling
For weeks, the trio of Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Nasir El-Rufai has saturated the airwaves with a singular, gloomy narrative: Nigerian democracy is under siege. From their new enclave in the African Democratic Congress (ADC), they warn of a “slide into autocracy.”
But as the dust settles on the February 21, 2026, FCT Area Council elections, a different reality emerges. It is not democracy that is under siege; it is a fragmented and ineffective opposition that is under siege by its own recurring failures.
If the ADC wants to be taken seriously as a “Third Force,” it must stop blaming “sieges” for its losses and start building a platform that offers more than just shared grievances. Until then, democracy continues to advance under the current administration, leaving behind those who prefer slogans to strategy.
The Abuja Reality Check
If democracy were truly dying, we would see a stifled, non-competitive landscape. Instead, the recent FCT polls showcased a vibrant, albeit localized, contest. The All Progressives Congress (APC) did not win through “siege” tactics; it won through superior grassroots mobilization and a unified front.
In contrast, the ADC coalition—despite the heavyweight names of Atiku and Obi—failed to win a single chairmanship seat in the nation’s capital. When an opposition bloc, led by two former presidential candidates, cannot flip a council in Abuja or show a pulse in Rivers, it is not a “democratic emergency.” It is a leadership crisis. To blame the system for an inability to connect with voters is the ultimate political deflection.
The 2026 Electoral Act: A Pillar of Progress
Critics “mouthing” the siege narrative conveniently ignore the landmark progress made just last week. President Tinubu officially signed the Electoral Act (Amendment) Bill 2026, a piece of legislation that finally codifies the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) as the mandatory standard.
While the opposition fixates on the “manual fallback” clause for network-blind areas, they ignore the broader victory: the law now makes electronic transmission the primary legal rail for results. This is not a “retreat” from democracy; it is an advancement. The administration is adapting the law to the harsh realities of Nigeria’s digital infrastructure to ensure no rural voter is disenfranchised by a dead signal.
Economic Resilience as a Democratic Tool
Democracy thrives on stability, and the numbers in early 2026 tell a story of recovery. Inflation: Dropped below 15% for the first time in years. GDP Growth: Exceeded 4% in the last quarter of 2025. Stability: A harmonized tax system and exchange rate stability have begun to reach Nigerian households.
A government that is “under siege” does not fix its economy; it loots it to fund survival. The Tinubu administration’s focus on long-term fiscal discipline is the very foundation upon which a healthy, participatory democracy is built.
Verdict: Look in the Mirror
Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai would serve Nigeria better by looking in the mirror rather than at the laws. Democracy is not a shield for those who cannot organize; it is a mirror that reflects the will of the people at the polling units.
If the ADC wants to be taken seriously as a “Third Force,” it must stop blaming “sieges” for its losses and start building a platform that offers more than just shared grievances. Until then, democracy continues to advance under the current administration, leaving behind those who prefer slogans to strategy.