Ladi Adebutu and Iyabo Obasanjo can deliver Ogun, by Dele Sobowale

“History is a record of what has happened in the past.”

That was the first sentence in the History book given to us at Igbobi College, Yaba; when, as an Area Boy from Campos, Lagos, I gate-crashed into the school. History became one of my favourite subjects since then till today.  However, it was not Igbobi College which stimulated my interest in History. Mr John Sagay, our History tutor at ICY, only nurtured a seed planted at St Peter’s Primary School, Faji, Lagos, by Mr Udoh.

Udoh was the first teacher who, in primary three, told us, point blank, that, as far as he was concerned, 70 per cent was not good enough; not even 80 per cent or 90 per cent. With him, only 100 per cent could save you at least one stroke of the cane. His favourite subject was History; it became mine too. By the age of nine, I was conversant with the main outlines of the lives of Napoleon, Horatio Nelson, Abraham Lincoln, Christopher Columbus etc.

Each time he repeated “England expects every man to do his own duty”, he would ask each one of us to point to ourselves and say “Nigeria expects Bamidele (that was me) to do his own duty”. The ‘he’ would briefly launch into a list of our civic duties – which would help build Nigeria. I must have been taught by at least 200 people from primary to tertiary institutions but Mr Udoh remains my number one instructor. One day in 1953, he was passing in front of our house; while I was playing with two friends, not from St Peters, and he pulled me aside. “Bamidele, what did Horatio Nelson say?” He got the reply he wanted. Then he started “Nigeria expects…” I finished it and got three kobo.

POLITICIANS IGNORE PRECEDENTS – HISTORY – AT THEIR PERIL

“Complacency breeds failure.” (Andy Grove). “The tragedy in our life is often not in our failure; but, rather in our complacency.” (Benjamin E Mays).

Complacency accounts for a lot of political defeats. Napoleon lost at Waterloo; Hitler was turned back at the Battle of Stalingrad. Each defeat preceded the end of an illustrious career. The world has just witnessed the humiliation of the mightiest military power ever built by a nation under President Trump. Complacency was the common element. Nigeria is not immune to it. The Biafran War was supposed to be a police action. It lasted three years; and, for some people, it is still not over.

Nigerian politics produced its own upsets by under-dogs on many occasions. I was a close witness to two and a long distance observer of the third – among several. First, in 1983, the late Governor Rimi, Kano, of the Peoples Redemption Party was up for re-election. Widely acclaimed to have performed well, the National Party of Nigeria, NPN, had difficulty getting any candidate to challenge Rimi – until a fellow called Sabo Barkin Zuwo, formerly a bouncer at the Kano Cinema, badly educated and a “stalwart”, of the NPN, offered to challenge Rimi. As the Marketing Manager of North Brewery Limited, Kano and a co-member of Kano Club with Rimi, as well as a friend, I declared open house at the club when Sabo was confirmed as NPN candidate. So sure was everybody that it would be a landslide victory, Rimi did not even bother to campaign in Kano. Instead, he spent his time promoting Malam Aminu Kano for President all over Nigeria. It was a blunder. Barkin Zuwo won.

Exactly 20 years after, 2003 to be specific, and in Ogun State, another major upset occurred. Again, I was a close witness. One Monday, a fellow was ushered into the Editorial Conference Room of VANGUARD, while the Editors’ meeting was in progress. I was present as a columnist and economist to the group. The Editor, Gbenga Adefaye, had announced to us that one Gbenga Daniel, a PDP candidate for governor of Ogun State, was going to address us. To be honest, virtually all of us regarded his presence as a diversionary waste of time. Aremo Segun Osoba, the incumbent governor, had performed well; and, above all, he was our brother. We listened politely, but, impatiently, to Daniel. The consensus of opinion, after he left, was “he is wasting his time”. Osoba must have thought so too. Like Rimi in 1983, he was often seen welcoming President Obasanjo to Lagos and Abeokuta. It was a fatal error of judgment. Daniel won. I wept.

In 2023 (there must be something mysterious about years ending in 3), nobody could have predicted what happened in Lagos State – until Peter Obi, candidate of the Labour Party, was declared winner of the state’s presidential election. Even Tinubu’s ultimate victory will never erase that embarrassment. As far as I am concerned, complacency was the main cause of the failures. It might occur again in Ogun.

WHY OGUN IS NOT SAFE FOR APC

“Blood is thicker than water.” The APC, in a bid for fairness, zoned the governorship to Yelwa, or the area once called Egbado, because the zone has never produced a governor – military or civilian. Highly noble of them. But, idealism counts for very little in politics. That is why people like Gani Fawehimi, Professor Pat Utomi, my hero, Victor Attah, Malam Aminu Kano, to mention a few, never became President. Even in the best governed nations, politics is still a game of numbers. “God is always on the side of the big battalions”. (Field Marshall Turene, 1611-1675). The votes to elect governor are not in Yelwa. They are concentrated in Abeokuta axis, Remo and Ijebu zones of Ogun State. As it is, APC’s loss might turn out to be PDP’s gain.

LADI ADEBUTU AND IYABO OBASANJO: FORMIDABLE TEAM

“It is not over until it is over” We learnt that from several football games which ended differently from what the pundits expected. Given all the problems associated with opposition political parties, APC had every reason to believe the contest for all elective offices will be easy. And, at first, it appeared a reasonable assumption. So complacent was the party, the door was slammed in the face of Dr Iyabo Obasanjo; who was vying for governorship. The daughter of the two-time Head of State went away; but not too far.

All along, Ladi Adebutu, son of Chief, Sir Kessington Adebutu, KJW, GCON… , had single-handedly kept the PDP alive in Ogun State. He was the party’s candidate for governor. For a while, it appeared as if it was going to be Adebutu alone against a tag team of APC strong men. APC’s primaries changed everything. Iyabo was tossed out; Gbenga Daniel was shown the gate. Dr Obasanjo decamped to the PDP and there are speculations about Daniel. A very formidable PDP team has emerged – which the APC dismisses at their peril.

For reasons to be stated in the second part of this series, I am pitching my tent with the Ladi-Iyabo team. I love under dogs in every contest…

To be continued…

A GOOD NAME IS ALWAYS BETTER

“A man [or woman] who is contented does not barter his [or her] integrity for gain. He knows that his true inheritance is not money, property or titles. It is a name unsullied by compromise” – Chief Kesington Adebukunola ADEBUTU, KJW, OON, CON, CFR, GCON, in LEGACY IN MOTION: THE QUIET POWER OF A NIGERIAN ICON.

Chief Adebutu’s book is highly recommended for everyone – especially those in public service or those planning to be engaged in it. His extremely wise counsel, which must have been passed to Ladi, should serve as a guide to everyone. Those words, already quietly included in the second edition of VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, now in progress, came to my mind on Saturday and Monday, June 20 and 22, 2026 respectively, as I was going through Daily Trust.  First, an article by highly erudite columnist, Monima Daminabo, titled: ‘NNPCL probe fallouts: Senate on trial’, left no doubt that Nigeria’s senators, left on their own, cannot be trusted to act with patriotism. To be candid, every senator should be embarrassed by the obvious implications of that article. Those who value their integrity more than anything else should openly join the call for a total probe of the allegations made by the auditors.

Let me briefly put the matter in perspective. Nigeria’s debt now stands at N160 trillion. The auditors claim that the nation lost N210 trillion on account of mismanagement by NNPCL Directors between 2015 and 2023. Obviously, if only 80 per cent of the amount was well managed, Nigeria should be debt-free now.

On Monday, June 22, on page 36 of Vanguard, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, published a full page advertisement – declaring Sadiya Umar Farouq, ex-Minister under Buhari, wanted. Invariably, the EFCC does not declare somebody wanted unless the individual has refused to respond to invitations issued by the Commission. My heart bled for the entire Farouq family. It bled for Sadiya also. Perhaps if somebody had counseled her in the words of Chief Adebutu; she would not now be a fugitive from the law. Very few Nigerians ever become Ministers. To reach the top and try to ruin your reputation is a form of suicide – at a young age. Pity.

I am not sure if Ms Sadiya is married or not; or if her father is alive. Anyone of those two owes Nigeria a duty. They should fish her out, get a good lawyer and escort her to the nearest EFCC office. Only one person is worse than an offender – a remorseless one.

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