How Imposed Tickets May Fracture APC’s 2027 Game Plan

From Lagos to Kano, the ruling party, All Progressives Congress’ shortcut to unity is fast becoming its most potent trigger of discord. Sunday Aborisade reports.

The All Progressives Congress (APC) thought it had found a neat political formula to trim the cost of primaries, manage internal rivalries, and project unity by embracing consensus candidacy ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Instead, that strategy is fast morphing into a centrifugal force, pulling the party apart across key states and constituencies, exposing fault lines that could prove costly at the polls.

Across Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Kwara, Ekiti, Nasarawa and Kano, a pattern is emerging: consensus, rather than being negotiated, is increasingly perceived as imposed.

The backlash has been swift, organised, and in some cases, openly confrontational.

At the heart of the crisis is a fundamental contradiction. While the Electoral Act and the APC constitution permit consensus arrangements, they are explicit on one condition. That is, every aspirant must voluntarily agree.

What is playing out across the country, however, suggests a different reality: pressured withdrawals, selective consultations, and endorsements driven by power blocs rather than broad-based agreement.

Nowhere is this tension more visible than in Lagos State, the APC’s traditional stronghold and political nerve centre.

The endorsement of Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat as the preferred governorship candidate has unsettled the delicate balance of interests within the party.

For many aspirants, it is less about Hamzat’s credentials and more about the process that produced him.

Aspirant Wale Ajose’s allegation of a “forced consensus” captures a wider sentiment among grassroots mobilisers who feel sidelined.

In Lagos politics, where structure, loyalty, and inclusion often determine electoral outcomes, the perception of imposition can be particularly damaging.

Party insiders warn that if not carefully managed, the simmering discontent could weaken mobilisation efforts in a state the APC can least afford to lose or fracture.

In neighbouring Ogun State, the crisis has taken on a regional dimension.

The emergence of Senator Olamilekan Adeola, widely known as Yayi, as a consensus candidate has ignited protests, especially in the Ijebu axis.

Critics argue that the arrangement violates long-standing zoning understandings, a sensitive issue in Ogun’s political configuration.

What makes Ogun particularly volatile is the interplay between zoning expectations and elite consensus.

For stakeholders in marginalised zones, consensus without rotation feels like exclusion by another name. The result is a deepening polarisation that could push aggrieved actors to explore alternative platforms or disrupt party cohesion from within.

Similarly, the consensus arrangement in Ogun East has exposed a sharp rift between Governor Dapo Abiodun and Senator Gbenga Daniel over control of the APC’s senatorial ticket.

While Abiodun’s camp is accused of backing a preferred candidate under a consensus deal, Daniel’s loyalists insist on an open primary, citing fairness and zoning sensitivities in the district.

The dispute reflects a broader struggle for political supremacy ahead of 2027, with both camps mobilising support structures.

If unresolved, the standoff risks deepening factional divides and weakening APC cohesion in Ogun East.

Oyo State presents a slightly different but equally troubling scenario.

The endorsement of Adebayo Adelabu has been framed by party leaders as a pragmatic step toward unity. Yet, multiple aspirants have rejected the move, insisting that inclusiveness, not expediency, should guide the process.

Behind the scenes, parallel structures are already taking shape. Camps loyal to different aspirants are mobilising, calculating that even if consensus holds on paper, it may collapse under the weight of dissent during primaries or spill into anti-party activities during the general election.

The lesson from past cycles is clear: unresolved pre-primary grievances rarely disappear; they mutate.

In Kwara State, where the APC has enjoyed relative dominance in recent years, the consensus push is testing internal alliances.

Loyalists of Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq are said to be promoting preferred candidates for legislative positions, prompting resistance from stakeholders who demand open contests.

Kwara’s situation underscores another risk inherent in consensus politics, which is, the concentration of decision-making power.

When candidate selection appears to be driven by a narrow circle, it breeds suspicion, even among long-time allies.

For a party that once capitalised on broad-based coalitions to upend entrenched political structures in the state, the optics of exclusion could be particularly damaging.

If the crises in the South-West reflect tensions between zoning, ambition, and process, the developments in Ekiti State highlight a battle over legitimacy itself.

In Ekiti South Senatorial District, the endorsement of Senator Adeyemi Adaramodu as consensus candidate was presented as the outcome of extensive consultations and unanimous agreement among stakeholders.

The development has consequently set off a fresh round of controversy within the party as former Senator Biodun Olujimi, rejected the move and insisted that no such agreement exists.

The endorsement, conveyed in a letter to the Ekiti State Chairman of the APC, followed what party leaders described as extensive consultations and unanimous agreement among stakeholders across the six local government areas in the district.

The signatories—Idowu Isaac Dare, Gabriel Omoniyi, Oyebode Kayode, Olajide Falae, Akinseye Adebayo, and Chief Clement Ojo—said the decision aligned with the party’s preference for consensus arrangements where practicable.

THISDAY gathered that the resolution was reached at a stakeholders’ meeting held on April 13, 2026, at the senatorial office on Moshood Road in Ikere Ekiti, where participants reportedly adopted Adaramodu without a dissenting voice.

According to the letter, the decision reflected “the collective will of party members across wards and local governments,” stressing that the adoption was driven by the need to ensure unity, stability and electoral victory for the APC in the district.

“The choice of Senator Adeyemi Raphael Adaramodu reflects the will of the party members and the need for unity, stability and victory for the APC in our district,” the stakeholders stated, urging the State Working Committee to formalise his candidacy ahead of the 2027 polls.

They also attached minutes of the meeting to substantiate their claim, noting that the process complied with internal party guidelines on consensus building.

Adaramodu, who currently represents Ekiti South in the Senate and serves as spokesperson of the upper chamber, is widely regarded within APC ranks as a ranking lawmaker with significant grassroots appeal.

However, the claim of consensus has been strongly disputed by Olujimi who described the development as misleading and contrary to the party’s laid-down procedures.

In a recent chat with our Correspondent, the former senator insisted that no aspirant had been adopted as a consensus candidate, stressing that all interested contenders—including herself, Hon. Bamidele Faparusi, and Senator Adaramodu—had purchased nomination and expression of interest forms, a move she said, clearly demonstrated their intention to contest.

She argued that the financial commitment required to obtain the forms underscored the seriousness of the aspirants and made any claim of consensus untenable.

Olujimi further alleged that the purported endorsement was based on “falsehood and desperation,” warning that such actions could deepen divisions within the party and undermine its cohesion ahead of crucial elections.

She challenged the legitimacy of some individuals linked to the endorsement, claiming that the person paraded as district chairman was fictitious and that any political arrangement not known to the authentic leadership should be disregarded.

The ex-Senator expressed fears that failure to properly manage the dispute could have spillover effects on upcoming elections, including the June 20 governorship poll, and potentially weaken the party’s standing in the state.

The development highlights the growing tension within Ekiti APC as the 2027 electoral cycle gradually gathers momentum, with competing interests jostling for advantage amid efforts by the party leadership to maintain unity.

Olujimi’s rejection of the claim has thrown the process into disrepute.

Her insistence that multiple aspirants, including herself, have already purchased nomination forms raises a critical question: how can there be consensus when the field is demonstrably active?

Beyond the immediate dispute, Ekiti exposes a deeper institutional challenge for the APC. Who defines consensus? Is it the outcome of a stakeholders’ meeting, or a verifiable agreement among all aspirants?

When these definitions diverge, the result is confusion, contestation, and, ultimately, fragmentation.

Olujimi’s call for intervention by Governor Biodun Oyebanji, President Bola  Tinubu, and the national leadership reflects growing anxiety within the party.

The fear is not just about one senatorial seat but about the precedent such disputes could set as the 2027 cycle intensifies.

Further North, Kano State offers perhaps the most complex illustration of the consensus conundrum.

Unlike in the South-West, where elite endorsement drives the process, Kano’s model attempts a hybrid approach. That is, mandating constituencies to produce consensus candidates within a tight timeframe while keeping primaries as a fallback.

Yet, even this structured approach has struggled to contain ambition. In Doguwa/Tudun-Wada Federal Constituency, the battle between incumbent lawmaker Alhassan Ado Doguwa and challenger, Salisu Yusahu Soja has split stakeholders into rival camps, each producing its own “consensus” candidate.

The irony is striking: a mechanism designed to unify has yielded parallel endorsements.

A similar breakdown is evident in the Rimin-Gado/Tofa/Dawakin-Tofa Federal Constituency, where attempts at consensus degenerated into chaos, with stakeholders rejecting the incumbent in favour of a local government chairman.

The scene reportedly descended into disorder, an apt metaphor for a process struggling to command legitimacy.

At the senatorial level, the stakes are even higher. In Kano Central, a crowded field of aspirants has made consensus virtually impossible, with sources indicating that primaries may be the only viable option.

In Kano North, high-level negotiations involving the Deputy Senate President Jibrin Barau, signal the extent to which consensus decisions are being shaped by elite bargaining rather than grassroots agreement.

Barau is said to be consulting top party leaders in Abuja and Kano to withstand the strong opposition against him.

He has as his major challengers, a former Minister of State for Housing, Hon. Abdullahi Tijjani Gwarzo, and Mohammad Mudi Bichi.

Observers believe that Barau may get an automatic ticket to return to the Senate for conceding his governorship ambition to Governor Yusuf, while the former minister may be returned to a ministerial position.

In Nasarawa State, the consensus arrangement has also sparked controversy following the reported endorsement of Aliyu Wadada as governorship candidate by Governor Abdullahi Sule.

The move has drawn strong opposition from a former Inspector-General of Police (IGP), Mohammed Abubakar Adamu, who rejected the process as lacking transparency and inclusiveness.

The disagreement underscores growing resistance to perceived imposition within the APC, as aspirants demand a level playing field.

With both camps mobilising supporters, the dispute risks escalating into a full-blown intra-party crisis that could fracture party unity ahead of the 2027 governorship contest.

Taken together, these developments point to a party at a crossroads. The APC’s reliance on consensus is not new; it has been deployed in previous cycles with varying degrees of success.

What is different this time is the scale of resistance and the multiplicity of fronts on which it is occurring.

Several factors explain this shift. First is the high stakes of the 2027 elections. With shifting alliances and emerging opposition platforms, party tickets are more valuable and more fiercely contested, than ever.

Aspirants are less willing to yield ground without a fight, especially when they believe the process is skewed.

Second is the changing nature of party membership. The APC has grown into a broad coalition of interests, making it harder to achieve genuine consensus.

What might have worked in a more cohesive structure now encounters resistance from diverse and assertive blocs.

Third is the erosion of trust in internal processes. Where aspirants suspect that outcomes are predetermined, they are more likely to resist, litigate, or defect.

Consensus, in such an environment, is viewed not as compromise but as coercion.

For the APC leadership, the challenge is both immediate and strategic. In the short term, it must manage the brewing crises to prevent escalation into parallel congresses, court cases, and defections.

In the longer term, it must decide whether consensus remains a viable tool for candidate’s selection or whether a return to more competitive primaries is inevitable.

A senior party chieftain, speaking anonymously, captured the dilemma succinctly: consensus works only when it is genuinely consensual. Otherwise, it becomes a source of division rather than unity.

There are also broader implications for Nigeria’s democratic process.

Political parties are the gatekeepers of electoral competition; when their internal mechanisms are perceived as opaque or exclusionary, it undermines public confidence in the system as a whole.

For now, the APC’s consensus experiment is under strain.

What was conceived as a strategy for cohesion is increasingly functioning as a catalyst for discord. Unless recalibrated, consensus risks not only fracturing the party internally but also weakening its electoral prospects in a contest that promises to be fiercely competitive.

As 2027 approaches, the question is no longer whether consensus can work, but whether the APC can afford the cost of getting it wrong.